Inside the ‘games’ the U.S. and Canada use to predict world outcomes

A Canadian and American flag are shown strung between fire service areal truck ladders on Friday Sept. 14, 2001 in Winnipeg, Man. (CP / Winnipeg Free Press – Ken Gigliotti)

By Alexander Panetta, The Canadian Press, July 2, 2017 

WASHINGTON — Amir Bagherpour already has a detailed set of charts predicting how everything will play out in the NAFTA negotiations, even though they don’t actually start for another few weeks.

He makes predictions for a living.

The U.S. intelligence community runs a prediction market where forecasters across government compete for prognosticative supremacy — it looks like a golf tournament leaderboard, only instead of birdies and bogeys, people are ranked by how correctly they call coup d’etats and counter-insurgencies.

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