We are Heading into Winter. Is a Weak La Niña Likely?
Experts are predicting the development of La Niña , with signs pointing to its arrival as we approach winter. The U.S. Climate Prediction Center (CPC) confirmed this week that La Niña is likely to form by November, and conditions could persist through early next year, continuing months of forecasts that we’ll enter this colder Pacific Ocean pattern.
Currently, conditions in the Pacific Ocean are ENSO-Neutral, meaning water temperatures are close to average for this time of year. Neutral conditions don’t have much effect on global weather, but recent drops in sea surface temperatures suggest a 60% chance that La Niña will take hold by November.
La Niña occurs when sea surface temperatures near the equator in the eastern Pacific Ocean are at least 0.5°C cooler than normal for several months. If it develops, this La Niña is expected to be weak and short-lived, lasting through the end of winter before neutral conditions return in the spring.
Despite its weaker nature, La Niña’s cooling effect on ocean waters can still impact atmospheric conditions, leading to weather changes in Canada. A typical La Niña winter brings colder-than-average temperatures to western Canada and increased storm activity around the Great Lakes and Atlantic provinces. However, weaker La Niña events tend to mute these effects.
El Niño and La Niña patterns are tricky to predict, driven by complex wind circulations and air pressure changes over the Pacific. Even small shifts can significantly influence water temperatures and, in turn, global weather.
What the Farmer’s Almanac predicts for the Prairies this November:
1st – 3rdUnsettled, with rain and (over higher terrain areas) snow over the Rockies.
4th – 7thRain from the Prairies spreads east, then turning clear and frosty.
8th – 11thStorm from British Columbia moves toward the Rockies and Prairies, then continues east. Heavy snows near and along the storm track (30-60 cm). Then clearing skies and very cold air pushes in behind the retreating storm.
12th – 15thPartly cloudy and unseasonably cold.
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