A new analysis suggests Canada must invest at least $30 billion in new mining infrastructure by 2040 to satisfy growing domestic demand for critical minerals essential to the transition toward a low-carbon economy.
Published Thursday by the Canadian Climate Institute, the report cautions against weakening environmental standards or bypassing meaningful engagement with Indigenous communities in an attempt to fast-track mining development. Such shortcuts, the authors warn, could lead to delays from legal challenges or local opposition down the line.
The release comes amid rising criticism from Indigenous groups and environmental organizations in response to new provincial legislation in Ontario and British Columbia aimed at streamlining the approval process for mining projects. Critics argue that the laws undermine constitutional commitments to Indigenous consultation and weaken environmental protections, while the provincial governments claim the changes will accelerate approvals without sacrificing those priorities.
According to the report, Canada is in a strong position to meet growing domestic and international demand for critical minerals like lithium and copper—key components in technologies such as electric vehicles, solar panels, and batteries. The authors estimate that domestic demand for six major critical minerals could hit $16 billion by 2040 if the country maintains its climate commitments, with electric vehicle production alone accounting for nearly half of that figure.
To meet this need, the report estimates $30 billion in capital investment will be required within Canada’s mining sector—an amount well above current investment levels, which have averaged just $2 billion annually between 2018 and 2023. The report also notes this projection may be conservative, as it doesn’t account for the frequent cost overruns typical of large-scale mining projects.
The Institute argues that federal and provincial governments have a role to play in helping mobilize investment through tools such as equity participation or risk-sharing mechanisms. However, the authors stress this support must not come at the cost of environmental oversight or Indigenous rights.
Marisa Beck, one of the report’s authors and research director for clean growth at the Institute, emphasized that the fastest-moving, most successful projects are those developed in partnership with Indigenous communities and that meet high environmental standards.
While the authors did not comment directly on specific legislative efforts like Bill 15 in B.C. or Bill 5 in Ontario, they offer several policy recommendations. These include funding Indigenous-led environmental assessments and strengthening provincial regulations to reduce environmental harm—for instance, by requiring public disclosure of mine closure plans.
The report concludes that fostering Indigenous economic participation and upholding environmental protections are not obstacles to progress, but rather crucial components of responsible and timely development.
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