Q2 2025 Energy Market Update
The second quarter of 2025 saw sharp market movements amid global tensions. April’s U.S. court ruling and June’s missile exchanges between Israel and Iran briefly pushed oil and shipping costs higher. Still, markets adjusted efficiently, and pricing remained driven by supply and demand fundamentals rather than political shocks.
Oil Market Trends
WTI crude traded between $59–$65 USD/bbl through spring, jumping to $75 mid-June before easing back to $69 as tensions cooled. OPEC+ plans to gradually restore production, beginning with a 441,000 bpd increase in August—likely creating a slight surplus and mild downward pressure on prices. U.S. output remains strong, and GLJ now forecasts a long-term WTI price of $72 USD/bbl.
Natural Gas Outlook
Henry Hub averaged just above $3.50 USD/MMBtu, supported by cooling demand, LNG exports, and growing industrial use. GLJ expects prices to reach $3.75 for the rest of 2025. In Western Canada, AECO fell to $1.07 CAD/GJ in June due to oversupply and infrastructure limits, but improvements are expected as LNG projects ramp up. AECO is forecast to rise to $3.82 CAD/GJ by 2026.
European LNG and Global Supply
European LNG prices remain firm, with Dutch TTF trading at €29–€33/MWh (~$9–$11 USD/MMBtu) amid storage concerns. This continues to attract global supply, benefiting North American exporters.
LNG Canada Launches
June marked a milestone as LNG Canada shipped its first cargo from Kitimat, B.C. The facility adds 1.8 Bcf/d of export capacity, connecting Canadian gas directly to Asia. This is expected to boost upstream investment and position Canada as a key player in global LNG markets, with expansion plans already underway.
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