In the third quarter of 2023, Canada came remarkably close to breaking its record for the highest population growth rate ever recorded in any quarter. During this period, the country welcomed an impressive 430,635 new residents, as reported by Statistics Canada on Tuesday. This surge reflected a remarkable 1.1 percent growth rate, the highest since the second quarter of 1957 when Canada experienced a population increase of 198,000 people, equivalent to a 1.2 percent growth rate.
During that earlier period, the rapid population growth was attributed to the post-war baby boom and the substantial immigration of refugees following the Hungarian Revolution in 1956. In contrast, today’s population growth is primarily fueled by international migration, an issue closely intertwined with Canada’s ongoing housing crisis, a pressing challenge for the nation.
According to Statistics Canada, this recent data is part of a growing trend of population growth reports. In fact, Canada’s total population growth for the first nine months of 2023 has already surpassed the total growth for any other full-year period since Confederation in 1867, including the record-breaking growth experienced in 2022.
Currently, Canada’s population stands at 40,528,396, having grown by 1,030,378 people since January. Remarkably, in the third quarter, every province and territory witnessed population growth, except for the Northwest Territories, which reported a slight decrease of -0.5 percent.
International migration played a pivotal role in this population surge, contributing to 96 percent of the growth during that time frame, with the remaining four percent attributed to natural increase (the difference between births and deaths).
Breaking down the international migration numbers, Statistics Canada reported 107,972 new immigrants in the third quarter, alongside 312,758 new non-permanent residents—the most significant quarterly increase since 1971. This surge was primarily due to a rise in the number of work and study permit holders, and to a lesser extent, an increase in refugees.
Canada’s immigration levels and Ottawa’s ambitions have become closely tied to the ongoing housing crisis. The minority Liberal government has aggressively raised immigration targets over recent years, surpassing records for the number of permanent residents admitted in both 2021 and 2022.
From January to September, immigration reached 371,299 out of Immigration, Refugees, and Citizenship Canada’s annual target of 465,000 immigrants. This was confirmed by Statistics Canada on Tuesday.
In November, Immigration Minister Marc Miller introduced new targets for the next three years, aiming to maintain the number of new permanent residents at 500,000 by 2026. The plans also show an increase in targets for 2024 and 2025, reaching 485,000 and 500,000, respectively.
However, some experts, including a senior official at the federal housing agency, have raised concerns that the Liberal government’s immigration policy has driven up housing prices and rent. At present construction levels, the Canada Housing and Mortgage Corporation predicts that Canada will face a shortage of 3.5 million homes, in addition to the current building efforts, to restore housing affordability by 2030.
Furthermore, housing affordability hit its lowest level in over four decades last quarter, as reported by the Bank of Canada last week.
While Canada’s housing market has cooled in the current high-interest rate environment, there is uncertainty about whether certain markets will remain stable given the expected interest rate cuts in the coming year.
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